Research Center
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County-Level Education Data, Trend Savvy Offer Valuation Guidance
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As investors and owners strive to value retail centers, they can draw on a correlation between college education levels, vacancies and gross leaseable area to predict performance. This edition of CPN and sister business Nielsen Claritas’ quarterly reports provides a close-in look at counties that stand out around the country. For the full report, please click here.
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New York-New Jersey College Education/Income
Philadelphia-Washington, D.C. College Education/Income
Chicago-Detroit College Education/Income
Dallas-Fort Worth-Houston College Education/Income
Southern California & Phoenix College Education/Income
Atlanta & South Florida College Education/Income
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| Additional Information |
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The retail sector is widely viewed as the problem child of commercial real estate investment today. But that doesn’t mean it can’t be valued. it can’t be valued. And education levels, it seems, offer the greatest clues. Click here.
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| Methodology |
To identify the connections between property valuation and demographics discussed in this report, Nielsen Claritas evaluated data from multiple sources, including its own, proprietary PopFacts database, CoStar Group, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics and the U.S. Census Bureau. In order to effectively compare data from these disparate sources, researchers elected to sue core-based statistical areas. Established by the federal government, CBSAs incorporate a core urban area together with surrounding areas that are linked geographically and economically.
The analysts ran multiple models to determine which factors are associated most closely with vacancy, the best indicator of net operating income and, therefore, asset value. Focusing on centers of at least 250,000 square feet, Nielsen Claritas studied multiple demographic and economic factors, among them employment, household income, population density and total retail sales. As noted in the main article, the researchers found a striking relationship between CBSAs’ vacancy rates and a combination of education levels and gross leaseable area per person.
The size of the population and geographic areas represented by the largest CBSAs can make it difficult to drill down to the local level. To supplement their analysis of CBSAs like those anchored by New York City, Los Angeles, Dallas, Houston, Chicago and Miami, Nielsen Claritas also provided a county-level analysis of education for more than 49 counties that comprise larger CBSAs. |
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