Finance  Institutional Investment
Economic Update - Home Price Uptick? Sort Of
Jul 29, 2009

On the heels of news Monday that new home sales were up a little, home prices inched up as well--at least, those measured by the Standard & Poor's/Case-Shiller Home Price Index in its raw form. In May, the index, which measures prices in 20 metropolitan areas, rose 0.5 percent over April, following a 0.6 percent drop the month from March to April. The movement is notable as the first time the index has moved up in three years.

It was a modest uptick, and also not seasonally adjusted. Adjust for the season--spring, after all, is traditionally when homebuyers get out there in force--and prices were actually down 0.16 percent. Still, that isn't very much of a decline. If annualized, it would be about 2 percent. Compare that to the 32 percent drop since the summer of 2006, at the peak of the bubble. In a statement, David Blitzer, chairman of the index committee S&P, said that "this could be an indication that home price declines are finally stabilizing."

It could also be transitory blip. There's still probably some downward pressure on home prices, especially as more jobs are lost and more foreclosures occur. No one is predicting a turn around of those critical indicators just yet.

Consumers aren't so sure about the direction of the economy, either. The Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index took a dive this month, falling to 46.6 from 49.3 in June. Consumers clearly still have their eyes on those unemployment numbers, rather than any purported green shoots in the housing market.

Early in the 2000s, banks were opening branches as fast as saloons in a mining boomtown, but word of Bank of America's plan to close some of its branches--it has about 6,100 retail banks or so nationwide--means that the era of retail bank expansion is finally, completely dead. Not that banks have been expanding much in the last year or two, but the Bank of America move is definitely one large nail in a coffin that's already sealed up tight.

Just how many branches will close isn't clear. Initial reports pegged the closure at 10 percent of the current total, but later the bank said that it merely plans a "modest" reduction.

Las Vegas-based Station Casinos Inc. filed for bankruptcy on Tuesday after failing to come to some agreement with lenders on a plan for its $5.7 billion in debt. Currently the company owns or has an interest in 18 casinos, including the Palace Station Hotel & Casino, Boulder Station Hotel & Casino and the Texas Station Gambling Hall & Hotel, among others. They will operate normally for the time being.

The company's brands are probably better known in Las Vegas itself than to the traveling public, since the Station's niche is catering to people who live and work in town. Unfortunately for that niche, when fewer people travel to Vegas, they leave behind less money for the local economy. Locals, like visitors, have apparently cut back in their casino spending.

Wall Street meandered in negative territory most of the day on Tuesday and mostly ended a shade down. The Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 11.79 points, or 0.13 percent, while the S&P 500 was down 0.26 percent. The Nasdaq eked out a gain, up 0.39 percent.

 
Recent Institutional Investment  Headlines
NYPPEX Report Finds Significant Reduction in Prices Paid by Secondary Buyers
Global secondary private market advisory, trading and research firm NYPPEX released a report finding that secondary buyers have been acquiring interests in commercial real estate partnerships at 20 to 40 percent below replacement cost and at 40 to 60 percent below net asset value relative to private equity partnerships, with median secondary bids continuing to decline. Primary concerns, the entity found, include refinancing risk for mortgage loans originated during the 2005 to 2008 period, as well as loan size risk and risks associated with property type.
Economic Update - CalPERS Takes Rating Agencies to Task
Another California trend? CalPERS, the nation's largest pension fund, has filed suit against the three largest credit-ratingsagencies, essentially asserting that the agencies gave away highratings like gold stars to kindergartners back in the days when realestate only went up. Or to use the language of the lawsuit, "wildlyinaccurate and unreasonably high" ratings on various structuredinvestment vehicles caused the pension fund to lose a cool billiondollars.
SL Green Lands $145M for Refinancing of NYC Office High-Rise
Flying in the face of the still chilly credit market, SL Green Realty Corp. has managed to get its hands on a $145 million leasehold mortgage for the refinancing of the 1.2-million-square-foot office tower at 420 Lexington Ave. in Midtown Manhattan.
In Wake of CityCenter Suit, Another Vegas Project Looks to Move Forward
As one Las Vegas mega-project hits a snag, the site for a possible new development is set to go up for auction. Just a day after the announcement of a lawsuit brought by a co-developer of the massive CityCenter project against its partner comes word that a 22-acre parcel for a proposed Asia-themed casino resort will be sold at a bankruptcy auction in May.
Prices Drop in Second Quarter, MIT Index Finds
Prices for commercial real estate dropped at a record level in the second quarter despite an increase in sales, according to an index developed by the Massachusetts Institute of Technology Center for Real Estate. In a report released on Monday and first appearing on Reuters, the center quoted its index as finding that property sold by major institutional investors dropped 18.1 percent, to a level that is down 22 percent for the year, 32 percent from a year ago and 39 percent from its mid-2007 peak, despite transaction volume that increased for the first time since last summer. The decline is greater than the 27 percent drop in the late 1980s/early 1990s and even with it when adjusted for inflation, which brings both periods to a 41 percent drop.
Economic Update - MIT/CRE Index Takes Hit in 2Q09
Commercial real estate took a drubbing in the second quarter, according to Massachusetts Institute of Technology Center for Real Estate, whose index tracking commercial properties sold by institutional investors dropped 18.1 percent during 2Q09. The index is down 32 percent from the end of 2Q08, and 39 percent from its mid-2007 (that is, bubble) peak.
Economic Update - Panning for Gold in CRE Debt
Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke, high oracle of the U.S. economy, began two days of testimony before Congress on Tuesday, and said that things will slowly get better, eventually. He also noted that he and his banking brethren are watching developments in the commercial real estate industry--that ticking time bomb--with all the attention that a ticking time bomb deserves. Meanwhile, down in the trenches, there's a gold rush of sorts going on to find profits in real estate debt.
Economic Update - Recovery or Continued Slowdown?
Is the economy picking up or continuing to struggle? It seems to depend upon who you talk to and when you talk to them. While many reports gave a variety of accounts Tuesday, most supported bets that the pace of the recession is slowing.
U.S. Infrastructure at Crossroads: Report
With $132 billion having been set aside in the stimulus package for road, highway and various other transit related projects across the United States, the issue of the country's outdated infrastructure is at the forefront. The Urban Land Institute and Ernst & Young note in a new report that while the funding will certainly boost the job market, what is of even more vital importance is a long-term infrastructure plan for digging the nation out of an economic slump and shoring up the country to be competitive on an international level in the future.
Prudential, Lillibridge Partner on $30M Equity Deal
Healthcare real estate firm Lillibridge has received a $30 million equity commitment from Prudential Real Estate Investors to fund future developments and acquisitions.
Cadillac Fairview Buys 49% Interest in NY Macerich Center
Cadillac Fairview Corp. purchased a 49 percent interest in Macerich's Queens Center in the New York City borough of Queens for $150 million in net cash. The eighth joint venture between the two firms, the venture gives Canadian Cadillac Fairview, wholly owned by the Ontario Teachers' Pension Plan, entree to New York City. Queens Center is the top-performing asset in Macerich's portfolio: The 966,499-square-foot urban retail center, which at year-end 2008 was 97.5 percent occupied, was at that time producing annual mall sales of $876 per square foot. Macerich purchased it in 1995 and redeveloped and expanded it in 2004.
Economic Update - As Markets Tumble, Administration Gives Sneak Peek at Bank Overhaul Plan
There’s been plenty of evidence in both the political and business worlds over the past few days that the recent talk of an economic turnaround in the near future may have been a bit premature.
GE Taps Wells for New Debt Investment Position
GE Capital Real Estate has appointed Skip Wells to serve as fund manager for senior secured debt investments.
Economic Update - Home Price Uptick? Sort Of
On the heels of news Monday that new home sales were up a little, home prices inched up as well--at least, those measured by the Standard & Poor's/Case-Shiller Home Price Index in its raw form. In May, the index, which measures prices in 20 metropolitan areas, rose 0.5 percent over April, following a 0.6 percent drop the month from March to April. The movement is notable as the first time the index has moved up in three years.
Hong Kong Ups Disneyland Stake as Park Eyes Expansion
The Hong Kong government has increased its equity share in its joint venture with Walt Disney Co. as the Hong Kong Disneyland park plans an expansion within the next five years.
Economic Update - Credit Woes Put Kibosh on $2.5B Midway Deal
Citi Infrastructure Investors--a joint venture of Citigroup Inc., John Hancock Life Insurance Co. and Vancouver Airport Services-- will be unable to go through with a deal that would have seen the group buy Midway International Airport in Chicago for $2.5 billion. After previous extensions, the City of Chicago decided not to give the group any more time to close on the deal.
MBA: Outstanding Mortgage Debt Remains Unchanged in First Quarter
The level of commercial mortgage debt outstanding remained relatively unchanged in the first quarter, at $3.48 trillion, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association analysis of the Federal Reserve Board Flow of Funds data. The $3.48 trillion in commercial/multi-family mortgage debt outstanding recorded by the Federal Reserve was a decrease of $33 million from the fourth quarter of 2008. Multi-family mortgage debt outstanding grew to $908 billion, an increase of $5 billion, or 0.6 percent from the fourth quarter.
Economic Update - Government Takes Another Chunk of Private Sector with $58B Citigroup Stock Swap
Another day, another dollar the government plans to use to run private industry as Citigroup Inc. began a $58 billion stock swap that could leave the government with a 34 percent stake in the nation's third-largest bank.  
Economic Update - Bear Stearns' Bum Real Estate, Revealed
Bear Stearns Cos. was in the news again Thursday, in case anyone remembers back far enough to recall the last time it was big news--a time when the disappearance of that company into JPMorgan Chase seemed unfortunate, but not necessarily a harbinger of vast financial problems ahead. Which, in fact, it turned out to be.
Economic Update - Economists Call for Downsizing Financial Companies
If some esteemed economists testifying before the Joint Economic Committee of Congress Tuesday had their way, "too big to fail" would be a phrase of historical interest only--applying especially to that period of history just before 2008.
Undeterred by Grim Conditions, Sovereign Wealth Funds Eye U.S. Real Estate
The U.S. commercial real estate market, plagued by high vacancies and declining property values, is not at its most appealing right now, but according to a new report by Deloitte, sovereign wealth funds are beginning to see a great opportunity for investment.
Rockwood Latest Investor to Close Fund, Raising $964M
Hoping to capitalize on an unsettled real estate environment that could ultimately lead to the "best investment period in the last 20 years," private real estate investment firm Rockwood Capital L.L.C. has closed an investment fund with some $964 million in capital commitments.